Foot Guns Weekly - CPI, The Fed, CLARITY Act
💬 “This week, crypto markets will experience a ‘tug-of-war’ between macro and geopolitics.”
Overview
This week markets are watching the CPI data release tomorrow. Historically, this has a tendency to increase Bitcoin’s short term volatility as traders position around the data release. Longer term holders should essentially ignore the noise prior to the release. A softer inflation print could trigger a risk-on rally, particularly if it correlates with a weakening dollar. A hot CPI print would likely push risk-on assets down as markets and bring focus to how the new fed chair will act.
Beyond the CPI data reaction, watch for developments with the Clarity Act later this week. Progress on this front could provide much-needed legal certainty for digital assets, potentially attracting a new wave of institutional capital and driving structural shifts in the crypto markets.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase. Key support levels have held, but a decisive breach of recent highs (~64k) is required to confirm upward continuation. Any significant price movements should be accompanied by a rise in volume if not be skeptical of the moves. The Bitcoin price is continuing to stay above the 50-day moving indicating this short term rally still has momentum. A sustained break below this level and the bear market would likely continue into the fall. The market's interpretation of CPI, coupled with any clarity on the regulatory framework, will likely set Bitcoin’s direction for the remaining of July.
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Pod #62 She’s a Trader!
📊 BTC Market Snapshot
• $62,833 (−1.5% 24h) | RSI 61.3 | MACDh +436
• SMA20 $61,842 (above) | SMA50 $64,593 (below) | BB $58,226–$65,458
• Holding above SMA20 but under SMA50 — mid-range chop. MACD positive but momentum stalling.
• Macro: DXY 100.90 (−0.07%) | 10Y 4.57% (+0.66%) | SPX 7,575 (+0.42%) | VIX 16.34 (+8.72%)
• VIX spiking ~9% — geopolitical risk premium returning with US-Iran escalation.
😱 Market Sentiment
• F&G: 28 (FEAR) — 7-day: 27→20→22→23→26→26→28, slowly recovering
• Funding: 0.0013% (11.0% APR) — neutral, no crowded longs
• Fear easing off the 20 floor but nobody’s buying with confidence yet.
📰 Today’s Headlines
• US-Iran Airstrikes Send BTC Below $63K — Weekend mutual airstrikes triggered risk-off; Brent +3% on Strait of Hormuz fears. ETF flows broke 8-week outflow streak.
• Webull Gets MiCAR Approval for EU Crypto — Webull (NASDAQ: BULL) cleared by Dutch AFM. EU crypto custody launching late 2026 via Coinbase Luxembourg.
• House Sets July 17 CLARITY Act Hearing — Field hearing in NYC next Thursday. Polymarket puts 2026 passage at just 43%. Senators back from recess today.
🤖 FFT Trader Report
• fft_daily_longonly (2x): LONG 0.00116 BTC @ $62,818 → uPnL +$0.10
• fft_momentum_5x (5x): FLAT
• meanrev_daily (3x): FLAT
• meanrev_5m (3x): FLAT
Positioning: 1 of 4 strategies active. A tiny long in daily-only while momentum, mean-rev daily, and intraday all sit flat. Effectively neutral with a marginal long tilt. Models see no strong directional edge — appropriate with Iran escalation on one side and CLARITY Act tailwinds on the other. Defensive posture continues.
🏠 Bankruptcy & Foreclosure Watch
• H1 2026: 310,550 total filings (+12% YoY) — ABI/Epiq
• Commercial Ch.11: 4,589 (+28% YoY) | Subchapter V: 1,663 (+50% YoY) — small biz distress is the breakout story
• Consumer Ch.7: 187,572 (+15%) — liquidation outpacing repayment plans
• Foreclosure: 40,355 May filings (+14% YoY) | Active inventory 280K (6-year high) — ATTOM
• REO sales Q1: 14,020 (+45% YoY), median discount 27.2%
• Notable: Rosland Capital (precious metals dealer) Ch.11 liquidation; Mountain Mike’s Pizza franchisee filed
👁️ Watching Tomorrow
• Tue Jul 14: June CPI (8:30 AM ET) — consensus expects moderation after WTI crude fell 20% in June
• Tue Jul 14: Fed Chair Warsh semiannual testimony — House Financial Services (10 AM ET)
• Wed Jul 15: PPI release + Warsh before Senate Banking
• Thu Jul 16: House CLARITY Act field hearing, NYC (10 AM ET)
💬 “This week, crypto markets will experience a ‘tug-of-war’ between macro and geopolitics.”
— Taran Dhillon, head of digital assets at Kula (CoinDesk)
Not financial advice. Trade your own risk.