Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/09/2026)
"The labor market says soft landing. The bond market says not so fast. Bitcoin says neither — just sideways."
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📊 BTC MARKET SNAPSHOT
• BTC $62,445 (+0.3%) | RSI 63.2 | SMA20 $61,783 | SMA50 $65,621
• MACDh +542 | BB $58,238–$65,328 | Vol 27.5M
• Read: Holding above SMA20, below SMA50. Dead cat bounce zone — RSI fading from 64, momentum cooling. BB upper and SMA50 converge at ~$65.3K = the line in the sand.
• Macro: DXY 100.94 (−0.11%) | 10Y 4.58% (+0.26%) | SPX 7,483 (−0.28%) | VIX 16.72 (−1.07%)
📋 FRESH DATA — 8:30 AM ET
• Jobless Claims: 215K (wk ending Jul 4) — beat consensus of 218K. Prior revised up to 217K. 4-wk avg dropped to 218.75K. Labor market staying tight.
• Continuing Claims: 1.814M — up 8K, creeping higher but not alarming
• Existing Home Sales: 4.17M SAAR (June) — +3.2% YoY vs 3.98M last June. Third straight monthly increase, highest since December. Median price $429,300 (+1.3% YoY). Housing slowly thawing.
• Read: Resilient labor + warming housing = soft landing narrative intact. Not bearish for risk assets, but not a catalyst for rate cuts either. Net neutral-to-slightly-positive for BTC.
😱 MARKET SENTIMENT
• Fear & Greed: 22 — Extreme Fear
• Funding: 0.0013% (11% APR) — minimal cost to stay long
• 7-day: 21→22→23→24→27→20→22 — flatlining near the floor
📰 TODAY'S HEADLINES
• BTC ETFs back to outflows — $84.9M net outflow July 8, ending the 3-day $510M inflow streak. BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale all saw redemptions.
• AscendEX exchange shuts down — ceased operations July 1 after ZachXBT warnings. Withdrawals manual-only, reserves nearly empty. Another CEX down.
• Iran ceasefire "over" — Trump declared it done after Iran attacked 3 ships in Strait of Hormuz. Brent +5% to $78+. BTC holding $62K surprisingly well despite risk-off macro.
🏠 BANKRUPTCY & FORECLOSURE WATCH
Sources: ATTOM/Cotality | ABI/Epiq
H1 2026 filings (ABI/Epiq, released Jul 8):
• 310,550 total filings — +12% YoY (H1 2025: 276,306)
• 4,589 commercial Ch. 11 — +28% YoY
• 1,663 Subchapter V small biz — +50% YoY (fastest-deteriorating segment)
• 293,265 individual filings — +12% YoY | Ch. 7 up 15%, Ch. 13 up 8%
June 2026 alone: 52,282 filings (+13% YoY)
👁️ WATCHING TOMORROW
• No major US economic data Friday
• BTC funding rates and OI (37,968 BTC) — watch for deleveraging if price loses $61.8K (SMA20)
• Weekend liquidity typically thin — Iran headlines could amplify moves either direction
"The labor market says soft landing. The bond market says not so fast. Bitcoin says neither — just sideways."