Foot Guns

Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/09/2026)

Foot Guns — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 13:07:41 GMT

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📊 BTC MARKET SNAPSHOT
• BTC $62,445 (+0.3%) | RSI 63.2 | SMA20 $61,783 | SMA50 $65,621
• MACDh +542 | BB $58,238–$65,328 | Vol 27.5M

• Read: Holding above SMA20, below SMA50. Dead cat bounce zone — RSI fading from 64, momentum cooling. BB upper and SMA50 converge at ~$65.3K = the line in the sand.

• Macro: DXY 100.94 (−0.11%) | 10Y 4.58% (+0.26%) | SPX 7,483 (−0.28%) | VIX 16.72 (−1.07%)

📋 FRESH DATA — 8:30 AM ET

• Jobless Claims: 215K (wk ending Jul 4) — beat consensus of 218K. Prior revised up to 217K. 4-wk avg dropped to 218.75K. Labor market staying tight.
• Continuing Claims: 1.814M — up 8K, creeping higher but not alarming
• Existing Home Sales: 4.17M SAAR (June) — +3.2% YoY vs 3.98M last June. Third straight monthly increase, highest since December. Median price $429,300 (+1.3% YoY). Housing slowly thawing.

• Read: Resilient labor + warming housing = soft landing narrative intact. Not bearish for risk assets, but not a catalyst for rate cuts either. Net neutral-to-slightly-positive for BTC.

😱 MARKET SENTIMENT
• Fear & Greed: 22 — Extreme Fear
• Funding: 0.0013% (11% APR) — minimal cost to stay long
• 7-day: 21→22→23→24→27→20→22 — flatlining near the floor

📰 TODAY'S HEADLINES
• BTC ETFs back to outflows — $84.9M net outflow July 8, ending the 3-day $510M inflow streak. BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale all saw redemptions.
• AscendEX exchange shuts down — ceased operations July 1 after ZachXBT warnings. Withdrawals manual-only, reserves nearly empty. Another CEX down.
• Iran ceasefire "over" — Trump declared it done after Iran attacked 3 ships in Strait of Hormuz. Brent +5% to $78+. BTC holding $62K surprisingly well despite risk-off macro.

🏠 BANKRUPTCY & FORECLOSURE WATCH
Sources: ATTOM/Cotality | ABI/Epiq
H1 2026 filings (ABI/Epiq, released Jul 8):
• 310,550 total filings — +12% YoY (H1 2025: 276,306)
• 4,589 commercial Ch. 11 — +28% YoY
• 1,663 Subchapter V small biz — +50% YoY (fastest-deteriorating segment)
• 293,265 individual filings — +12% YoY | Ch. 7 up 15%, Ch. 13 up 8%
June 2026 alone: 52,282 filings (+13% YoY)

👁️ WATCHING TOMORROW
• No major US economic data Friday
• BTC funding rates and OI (37,968 BTC) — watch for deleveraging if price loses $61.8K (SMA20)
• Weekend liquidity typically thin — Iran headlines could amplify moves either direction

"The labor market says soft landing. The bond market says not so fast. Bitcoin says neither — just sideways."

Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/08/2026)

Foot Guns — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 12:55:20 GMT

📊 BTC MARKET SNAPSHOT
BTC $62,201 (1d -1.7%) | RSI 55.3
SMA20 $61,835 | SMA50 $65,921 | MACDh +609
Bollinger $58,215–$65,455 | Vol 33B
Trading between SMA20 and SMA50 — above short-term support but well below the 50-day. MACDh still positive but price action under pressure from geopolitical risk.

Macro Backdrop
DXY 101.22 (+0.08%) | 10Y 4.53% (+0.98%) | SPX …

Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/07/2026)

Foot Guns — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 13:08:13 GMT

📊 BTC MARKET SNAPSHOT
• BTC: $63,339 (1d −1.0%) | RSI 52.8 | MACDh +716
• SMA20: $61,872 | SMA50: $66,212 | BB: $58,221–$65,523
• Vol: 36,916M

• Read: Hovering below SMA50 with RSI dead-center — neither oversold nor overbought. Bollinger mid-band acting as resistance. July’s +8.4% bounce losing steam as OI drops.

Macro Backdrop:
• DXY: 100.93 (+0.08%) | 10Y:…

Foot Guns Weekly - MicroStrategy Sells!

Foot Guns — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:22:53 GMT

Strategy (MSTR) Sold 3,588 BTC — What Happened

The sale:
Strategy disclosed in an 8-K filing this morning that it sold 3,588 BTC for ~$216M between June 29–July 5 at an average ~$60,000/coin. This is:
• The largest BTC disposal in company history
• ~100x bigger than their first sale of 32 BTC in May
• Proceeds will be used to pay Q2 dividends on 5 preferred securities (STRF, STRE, STRK, STRD, STRC)

Current position:
• Holdings: 843,775 BTC (down from ~847K)
• Cost basis: ~$63.9B ($75,476 avg)
• USD reserve: $2.55B
• $1.25B BTC Monetization Program: untouched

Why they're selling:
Strategy's preferred shares (Digital Credit business) pay ~$1.5B/year in cash dividends (Grayscale estimate). Their software business can't cover that. When capital markets are open they raise via equity/debt. When markets tighten, BTC becomes the ATM.

Saylor framed it as treasury management, not a retreat. They're still buying on dips — picked up 1,550 BTC after the first sale in May.

Market reaction:
• MSTR initially up 8% pre-market on BTC strength, then flipped −2% after the filing
• BTC dropped from $62.9K → $61.9K on the news

───

🔮 What This Means for BTC — This Week & Q3

This week:
The overhang is psychological, not supply-driven. 3,588 BTC ($216M) is a rounding error against BTC daily volume. But it breaks a narrative — Saylor as the ultimate diamond-hand buyer is now also a seller - He can’t pretend to be both after this sale. That spooks the market short-term. Expect $60K to get retested as support this week. If it holds, the sale gets priced in fast. If it breaks, $57.7K (BB lower) is the next floor.

This quarter:
The bigger question is whether this becomes a quarterly pattern. Strategy faces ~$375M/quarter in preferred dividends. If equity markets stay choppy and BTC stays below their $75K cost basis, they'll need to sell more each quarter to fund the dividend machine they built. That's sustained sell pressure into a market already absorbing record ETF outflows ($4.5B in June).

Bull case: Q3 historically strong seasonally. CLARITY Act passing would be a massive sentiment catalyst. Fear & Greed at 24 is historically a contrarian buy signal. If BTC stabilizes above $60K and MSTR's stock recovers, they raise capital via equity instead of selling BTC.

Bear case: Strategy is now structurally forced to sell BTC when markets are weak — exactly when BTC needs buyers most. It's a pro-cyclical drain. If Q3 sees more red, each dividend payment forces another dump. The $1.25B monetization program sitting unused is a loaded gun.

Bottom line: Not catastrophic, but it changes the game. The biggest whale in BTC is no longer a pure accumulator. That's a narrative shift the market hasn't fully digested.

Sources: CoinDesk | Bitcoin Magazine | CoinCentral

📊 BTC MARKET SNAPSHOT
• BTC: $62,354 (−1.9% 24h) | RSI 44.0 | SMA20 $61,844 | SMA50 $66,452
• MACDh: +624 (positive but fading) | Bollinger: $58,191–$65,497
• Volume: 22.0B | Read: Below SMA50, mid-band BB — no man’s land
• Macro: DXY 101.11 (+0.24%) | 10Y 4.49% (+0.22%) | SPX 7,483 (flat) | VIX 16.33 (+1.11%)
• BTC spiked to $63,900 overnight before sellers pushed it back — CoinDesk

😱 MARKET SENTIMENT
• Fear & Greed: 24 — Extreme Fear | Funding: 0.0013% (11% APR)
• 7-day trend: 15→11→19→21→22→23→24 — crawling out of the basement
• Read: Sentiment is recovering but still deep in fear territory. Funding neutral.

📰 TODAY’S HEADLINES
• CLARITY Act Stalls in Senate — Three disputes (ethics, DeFi, stablecoin yield) block the 60 votes needed. Missed July 4 target. Polymarket now prices 39% chance of passage in 2026.
• Trump Discloses $1.4B in Crypto Earnings — 927-page financial disclosure reveals massive income from crypto ventures including meme coins, intensifying conflict-of-interest debate.
• Bitcoin Reclaims $63K Amid Short Liquidations — Weekend rally liquidated hundreds of millions in shorts, pushing BTC to 5-week highs before retreating.

🤖 FFT TRADER REPORT
• fft_daily_longonly (2x): LONG 0.00111 BTC @ $62,881 → uPnL −$0.69
• fft_momentum_5x (5x): FLAT
• meanrev_daily (3x): FLAT
• intraday_short_v2 (3x): FLAT
• Total equity: $916.52

🏠 BANKRUPTCY & FORECLOSURE WATCH
• May 2026 bankruptcies: 51,772 filings (+7% YoY) — Subchapter V small biz +36% YoY — ABI/Epiq
• Q1 2026 foreclosures: 118,727 properties (+26% YoY), 77% of US metros affected — ATTOM
• Notable: DISH DBS Chapter 11 ($9.75B debt, $2B notes matured) | TPx Communications filed June 28 (~$580M term loan) | Spirit Airlines ceased all operations
• Farm crisis: Chapter 12 filings +130% YoY in April, USDA projects record $624.7B farm debt
• Case-Shiller: Home prices fell for 2nd straight month — negative equity rising

👁️ WATCHING TOMORROW
• Tue 7/7: NFIB small business optimism, consumer credit, trade balance — secondary data
• ⭐️ Wed 7/8: FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET) — first look inside Warsh’s hawkish inaugural meeting
• Thu 7/9: Weekly jobless claims + 10Y Treasury auction
• Context: Light calendar this week — calm before Q2 earnings kick off ~July 14

“The continued flow of capital into major AI companies and IPOs will continue to attract investment away from other risk assets, such as bitcoin — down 50% from its October all-time high.” — CoinDesk

Not financial advice. Trade your own risk.

Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/05/2026)

Foot Guns — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 12:31:10 GMT

📊 BTC Market Snapshot
• BTC $62,584 (+0.1% 24h) — RSI 43.6 | SMA20 $62,118 | SMA50 $67,035
• MACDh +502 (positive) | Bollinger $57,727–$66,509
• Vol 17.7B | Price sitting between SMA20 and SMA50 — chop zone

• Read: Bouncing along SMA20 with positive MACDh momentum but below SMA50. Needs to reclaim $65K to shift the structure. Thin weekend volume.

Macro Back…

Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/04/2026)

Foot Guns — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 12:53:24 GMT

📊 BTC MARKET SNAPSHOT
• BTC $62,437 (1d −0.2%) | RSI 43.1 | SMA20 $62,111 | SMA50 $67,032
• MACDh +493 (momentum tick up) | BB $57,723–$66,499

• Read: Price hugging SMA20, still well below SMA50. Bollinger mid-range — no squeeze trigger. MACD histogram positive but BTC can't break overhead resistance.

• Macro backdrop (Wed July 3 close — US markets closed …

Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/03/2026)

Foot Guns — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 13:13:53 GMT

📊 BTC MARKET SNAPSHOT

• BTC $61,924 (+0.7%) | RSI 43.8 | SMA20 $62,243 | SMA50 $67,352
• MACDh +347 | BB $57,569–$66,918 | Vol 31.8M

• Read: Below both SMAs, grinding in lower half of bands. Downtrend intact but holding $60K.

• Macro: DXY 100.76 (−0.08%) | 10Y 4.37% (flat) | SPX/VIX closed (July 4th holiday)
• June NFP: +57K (vs 110K expected) — massive lab…

Foot Guns - Bitcoin Cheat Sheet (07/02/2026)

Foot Guns — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:34:36 GMT

📊 BTC Market Snapshot

BTC $61,278 (+2.1%) | RSI 43.8 | SMA20 $62,358 | SMA50 $67,731
MACDh +191 | BB $57,578–$67,138 | Vol 43.8M BTC

Read: Dead cat bounce off $58K — still below both major SMAs. Downtrend intact.

Hal’s comment: Watch for cycle bottom this quarter.

Macro backdrop:
• DXY 101.16 (−0.22%)
• 10Y Treasury 4.37% (−0.46%)
• S&P 500 7,483 (−0.22%)
• VI…

Foot Guns Is BACK (With A(i) New Voice)

Foot Guns — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 21:46:12 GMT

Welcome to the NEW Foot Guns!

Just like the old product the newly reworked Crypto Foot Guns daily market brief cuts through the noise — one message, every morning at 8am EST (premium subs - weekly for free), covering everything a crypto trader needs.

It opens with a BTC technical snapshot (price, RSI, key moving averages, Bollinger bands), and feedback on how to interpret these indicators. Alongside the technical is the macro backdrop (DXY, Treasury yields, S&P 500, VIX) so you know the full risk environment in five seconds. From there it layers in market sentiment with Fear & Greed chart and the day's three most actionable headlines.

A brand new feature is our live P&L report from our autonomous trading strategies. More details are available to premium subscribers.

Lastly, a new bankruptcy/foreclosure watch highlights systemic stress before it hits the tape. Each edition closes with what to watch tomorrow and a pull quote worth thinking about.

Say good bye to Boomer opinions and hello to procured market data and live trading bot reports!

“Bitcoin fell in both the first and second quarters of 2026, only the third time it has opened a year that way.” — CoinDesk

📊 BTC Market Snapshot

BTC: $60,358 (+3.1%)

• RSI(14): 35.0 — oversold
• SMA20: $62,489 | SMA50: $68,098
• MACDh: +60 (flattening, attempting turn)
• Bollinger Bands: $57,745 – $67,233
• Volume: 35.3B (+28% above avg)

Read: Bouncing off lower Bollinger band after testing $58.5K. RSI deeply oversold, MACD pushing positive. Still below both SMAs — bounce inside a downtrend, not a reversal. Watch $62.5K resistance, $57.7K support.

Macro backdrop:
• DXY: 101.42 (+0.22%) — dollar firm, mild headwind
• 10Y Treasury: 4.47% (+2.4%) — yields rising, risk-off pressure
• S&P 500: 7,483 (−0.22%) — soft
• VIX: 16.59 (+0.85%) — complacent but creeping up

😱 BTC Market Sentiment

Funding: 0.0013% (11% annualized) | OI: 35,908 BTC

Fear & Greed: 11 — Extreme Fear | — basement levels. Historically a contrarian bullish signal. Funding slightly positive but modest, market isn’t leveraged long despite the bounce. 7-day trend flatlining at 11-18, no recovery yet.

📰 Today’s Headlines

• Bitcoin opens Q3 in historical red zone — BTC fell in both H1 quarters, only the third time ever
• Citi slashes BTC/ETH forecasts — ETF outflows and stalled US crypto legislation cited
• SEC opens broad ETF rule review — public comment period on next-gen crypto fund structures

🤖 FFT Trader Report - (Foot Gun’s own automated trader powered by in house AI)

4 active strategies • Equity: $920.12 (deployed $930.00) • PnL: −$9.88 (−1.1%)

• fft_daily_longonly (2x) — LONG 0.00062 BTC @ $60,092 | $207.37 | uPnL +$0.20
• fft_momentum_5x (5x) — SHORT 0.00324 BTC @ $59,931 | $202.78 | uPnL −$1.56
• meanrev_daily — FLAT | $209.26 (+0.3%)
• intraday_short_v2 — FLAT | $300.71 (−1.6%)

2 of 4 strategies deployed. System 50% in cash, cautiously positioned around a choppy $60K.

🏠 Bankruptcy & Foreclosure Watch

Foreclosures (ATTOM):
• May: 40,355 filings (−5% MoM, +14% YoY)
• Q1: 118,727 properties (+26% YoY)
• Hotspots: Houston #2, Cape Coral FL +50% MoM

Notable:
• Dish DBS/EchoStar — Ch.11, $8.8B+ backed by creditors. Spectrum sale delay triggered it.
• TPx Communications — Ch.11, $1B+ liabilities
• Sangamo Therapeutics — Gene-editing pioneer, asset sale

Sources: ATTOM | ABI/Epiq

👁️ Watching Tomorrow

• US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu)
• ISM Services PMI (Thu) — consensus ~51
• FOMC minutes release
• BTC options expiry — monthly close Friday

Not financial advice. Trade your own risk.

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